Understanding Probability and Odds

Most people think they understand the basics of probability and odds but there are a few misconceptions. For example, in Texas Hold’em the odds of being dealt pocket aces are about 1 in 220 hands. So you’ve played 110 hands without receiving pocket aces. What are the chances of being dealt pocket aces now? Or what if you flip a coin and it comes up tails. What are the chances it will come up heads on the next flip? Odds are defined as the likelihood of a specific event or outcome to occur usually expressed as a fraction, i.e. a coin flip has a 1/2 chance of being heads. The chances of getting dealt pocket aces is the 1/220 every time the cards are dealt, whether it’s your first hand, the 110th or the millionth. It’s possible, although unlikely, to be dealt a thousand hands without being dealt pocket rockets. With the coin flip it is always a 50/50 chance to come out either way. For some the example may seem obvious and it is if you really think about it. The problem is, and what can get you in trouble at the poker table is feeling like you are due. For example you know that AKs chances of winning are about 1 in 5 and you’ve been dealt AKs four times. The there is an ace on the board but a possible flush that you have no part of so you over play your hand and lose big because you thought you where due. Once you understand odds and probability you become better equipped to make some of those tough decisions at the poker table and much more dangerous to your opponents. Check out the article on pot odds for more information on using odds to your advantage.